By Lourence Alturino
Image from UFC
This Saturday, the UFC Lightweight Championship is on the line as the Champion, Charles "Do Bronx" Oliveira defends his title for the second time against former interim champion, Justin Gaethje. Two of the very best 155ers finally go head to head for the ultimate prize, so who gets the hand raised and how?
Justin Gaethje (23-3)
They do not call him "The Highlight" for no reason. Justin Gaethje is widely regarded as one of, if not the most exciting fighter in the UFC. In his last go around in November 2021, Gaethje defeated Michael Chandler at UFC 268 in a fight for the ages. This is not his first championship opportunity as he lost to the champion at the time, Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 254. Justin Gaethje's power is unmatched and his fearless approach to a fight is what makes him so fun to watch. The Highlight has a record of 23-3 and while he was an interim champion before, he now looks to fix his mistakes from his first championship fight and strap the real belt around his waist.
Keys for Gaethje:
- Stay patient and methodical
- Avoid the ground at all costs
- Utilize leg kicks
Charles "Do Bronx" Oliveira (32-8, 1 NC)
The Undisputed Lightweight Champion of the world. Ever since my latest UFC post, Charles Oliveira became champion against Michael Chandler at UFC 262 and defended the title for the first time against Dustin Poirier at UFC 269. Oliveira holds the UFC records for the most finishes (18) and the most submissions (15). He has some of the slickest and best Jiu-jitsu the UFC has ever seen. Oliveira has a record of 32-8 (1 NC) and while that may not look like the most attractive record, he is also on a 10 fight winning streak. Do Bronx will look to adding one more win to that tally and successfully defend the gold once again.
Keys for Oliveira:
- Attack the body
- Get the fight to the ground and clinch
- Be the aggressor, put Gaethje on the backfoot
Breakdown:
For Justin, as much as he loves getting into brawls, he can't let this fight become one. Charles' Muay Thai game is top-tier, so he won't be an easy target to hit. Gaethje has incredible takedown defense and will need to use that a lot in this fight. He needs to keep this on the feet, pressure Oliveira, but don't rush.
As for Charles, he needs to make Gaethje fight off the backfoot. Emulating what Nurmagomedov did to Gaethje would be smart for Oliveira, as Justin was clearly uncomfortable fighting that way. Do Bronx should not want to keep this one on the feet with a guy like Gaethje, so he needs to change this fight and put Justin on the ground.
This is a classic KO artist vs submission specialist matchup. Gaethje is one of the hardest hitters in the UFC, while Oliveira has the best submission game. One thing to think about: Charles Oliveria was put down in the first round by his two previous opponents, Michael Chandler and Dustin Poirier. He was able to survive in those last two outings, but who knows what would happen if Justin were to put down Charles with that power of his?
Final Prediction pre-controversy:
This fight all depends on who can put the fight into their favorable realm (Oliveira on the ground, Gaethje on the feet). Whatever happens, I would not be surprised if this fight does not go the distance because these two can finish fights with ease. As a huge Gaethje fan, I would love for him to finally win the title. However, I don't believe this one goes his way. Heart says Justin Gaethje via early KO/TKO in the 1st or 2nd round. Head officially predicts Charles Oliveira defeating the Highlight via decision and keeping the belt around his waist.
Breaking News and Final Prediction post-controversy:
Well we have a bit of an issue here. As just announced as I'm writing this, Charles Oliveira has officially weighed in at 155.5 lbs, which is a half pound over championship weight (155 lbs). Do Bronx has been stripped of the UFC Lightweight Championship. The fight is still on, but only Justin Gaethje can win the title.
This is a crazy situation as this is the first time ever that a champion has lost their title on the scales. However, this is good for Gaethje. Obviously, Charles will still be dangerous, but he is compromised. Physically, he looks drained from the original weight cut and now having to attempt to cut the remaining half pound. Mentally, missing weight is already hard to deal with, but now learning that you have been stripped of your belt and cannot win it back is detrimental.
It is extremely difficult to win a fight after missing weight, especially going up against a guy like Justin Gaethje. Oliveira's chin was already bad, but now his durability has taken a big hit. It's going to be even more tough to withstand Gaethje's power now. Now predicting Gaethje via TKO in the 3rd round. Unfortunate situation, but and new 155 Champion, Justin Gaethje.
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